This report evaluates CBO’s baseline projections of deficits and debt from 1984 to 2023. It considers whether projections tend to be high or low, how widely errors vary, and how accuracy changes over longer horizons.
The evaluation adjusts for the estimated effects of legislation enacted after a projection was published, helping distinguish changes in policy from other sources of error.
At CBO, I lead evaluations of budget-projection accuracy and help explain the findings through reports and visual analysis.
Read the report, interactive presentation, and supporting data at CBO.